3 Bold Predictions for Week 5 (2025 Fantasy Football)

Every week in fantasy football, we look for edges — places where data, matchups, and usage trends point toward breakout performances. Here are three bold predictions for Week 5 that could swing your matchups.

1. Dalton Kincaid Will Finish as a Top-5 Tight End

Dalton Kincaid has quietly been building momentum, and Week 5 feels like the breakout spot. Ranked as the TE8 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings, he’s averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game but has yet to truly hit his ceiling. That changes this week.

Buffalo leans on Dawson Knox and rookie blocker Jackson Hawes, which has capped Kincaid’s snap share at 55.9%. Still, his usage is elite when he’s on the field. Among tight ends with at least 50 targets since 2024, Kincaid is:

• 4th in average depth of target (8.3)

• 8th in air yards share (17.3%)

• 19th in target share (14.6%)

• T-1st in end-zone targets (three)

This week’s matchup is perfect. The Patriots have allowed the 10th-most half-PPR points to tight ends, and Buffalo has the second-highest implied total of the week. If this game turns into a shootout, Kincaid has legitimate top-5 upside.

Bold Call: Kincaid smashes expectations and posts a top-5 TE finish.

2. Tetairoa McMillan Will Top 13 Half-PPR Points

Tetairoa McMillan has been a steady breakout candidate, and Week 5 looks like the week he cashes in. Miami’s defense has been shredded by wideouts, ranking bottom-10 in coverage grades and allowing the second-most expected points added (EPA) per pass.

McMillan’s usage metrics scream “breakout”:

• 89% route participation (15th among WRs)

• 39.5% air yards share (t-15th)

• 22% target share (23rd)

• 69.5 receiving yards per game (13th)

Last week’s underwhelming stat line masked elite opportunity, but the peripherals remain strong. With Miami’s secondary vulnerable, McMillan has the matchup to convert usage into fantasy points.

Bold Call: McMillan clears 13 half-PPR points and posts his best game of the season.

3. David Montgomery Cracks the Top-12 Running Backs

David Montgomery has quietly been one of the most efficient runners in football, ranking 19th in half-PPR points per game (13.1). This week, he gets the perfect storm of usage and matchup to vault into RB1 territory.

The Lions are double-digit favorites against the Bengals, which sets up Montgomery for heavy volume. Detroit has run the ball on 66% of snaps when leading by at least three points, and with Jahmyr Gibbs banged up, Montgomery should get fed.

His advanced metrics back it up:

• 18th in rushing yards per game (61.3)

• 26th in yards before contact (1.81)

• 1st in yards after contact per attempt (3.88)

• 7% explosive run rate (t-6th)

Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed the second-most half-PPR points per game (28.5) and the second-most rushing yards per game (123.5) to running backs. All signs point to Montgomery being a smash play.

Bold Call: Montgomery finishes as a top-12 RB in Week 5.

Final Thoughts

These predictions are bold, but not baseless. Kincaid has the matchup to break into the elite tight end tier, McMillan’s underlying usage makes him a prime breakout candidate, and Montgomery has both volume and matchup on his side. If these calls hit, they could swing Week 5 matchups in your favor.